Calgary Real Estate Supply & Demand January 2008 February 2, 2008
Posted by radley77 in supply and demand.Tags: Calgary real estate, Calgary real estate forecast, CREB predictions, January 2008 housing statistics
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A review of supply and demand is important in understanding the direction of house prices. The following graph shows the recent trends of inventory and year over year sales. In summary, the market has changed dramatically from last year:
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Current inventory is more than double January 2007
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Sales are down more than 30% year over year
Please feel free to post your own interpretation.
Radley,
I like this graph, especially how you juxtapose the RE industry comments with the facts from their own numbers!
I really with the boneheads at the herald would do the same thing when writing an article quoting these clowns. Every time the RE “professional” says that sales are doing well, the reporter should throw back, “but sales are down 31% YoY, why???”
Alas, we can’t expect any real “investigative” journalist from the mainstream press, but it sure would be nice.
Great blog, keep up the good work!
Radley
Have you seen this RBC Report
http://www.rbc.com/RBC:Rcoeq471A8UAA82cCyw/economics/market/pdf/qbr.pdf
Go through it, will give you a lot of the data that you were asking for.
Nice analysis radley. The Fraser Valley appears to be about 6 months behind Calgary.
Thanks for the info, Neil. They definitely answer most of the important questions!
Radley - Glad to see someone who actually understands basic economics 101 (supply & demand). Bear in mind the stats you’re using above reflect TOTAL number of listings on the Calgary MLS system. When you see total number of listings on the Calgary MLS system, remember that approximately 1/3 of the total are from outside the city (made up of outlying towns and areas such as Okotoks, Cochrane, Chestermere, as well as acreages, property all over southern Alberta, and even out of province listings *recreational property from BC, the USA, Mexico, Central America, etc*)
We refer to the “listing inventory” as the total number of area listings divided by the total area sales *per month*. As of today (Feb 18/0
there are 6,815 active listings in “Metro Calgary”, and there have been just under 60 metro Calgary sales per day. In other words, listing inventory is now just under 4 months supply (at current sales rates).
Obviously the number of listings is much higher than it was a year ago, and sales in January 2008 were 31% lower than the same period a year ago. That being said, the first 6 months of 2007 were record setting months (beating the record pace set in 2006).
All of these stats are available & updated daily on my website at http://www.jimsparrow.com
How s the Calgary market doing now, in May 08? Slower?
