Comments on: Calgary Housing Market Looking Gluttonous – Fight That Flab!

By: radley77

radley77 — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 06:38:32 +0000

Claeren: Hi. I’m putting together another blog post regarding house prices and construction rates and hope to have that up shortly.

Darrell: Units under construction should be read from the left axis. So, there are roughly 14,000 units under construction in Calgary.

By: Darrell

Darrell — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 08:39:54 +0000

So … from the second point from top, are there going to be a total of 27,000 units on hand shortly? Am I reading this correctly? How many months supply will there be?

By: Canadian Housing Crash Could Induce More Investing in America | BloodhoundBlog: Real estate marketing and technology blog | Realtors and real estate, mortgages, lending, investments

Tue, 10 Jun 2008 02:26:42 +0000

[...] The Calgary real estate market is overbuilt…AND… [...]

By: Claeren

Claeren — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:59:46 +0000

Is there any way you could super-impose average yearly price on top of this graph??

I think that would show a further important layer of market (re)action?

By: radley77

radley77 — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:55:25 +0000

My bad, should have been 14,000 instead of 30,000 assuming all units currently under construction are finished within a year.

By: liverless

liverless — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:35:49 +0000

This is great information – good post. What is the difference between the 14,000 units mentioned above and the 30,000 units mentioned on Bob Truman’s blog? Are you looking at a longer time-frame with the 30,000 units?

By: radley77

radley77 — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 00:24:09 +0000

This was totally new information to me after I put the graph together that 1980’s construction levels were as high as they were. The 1980’s Calgary boom and bust appears to have created a housing depression in it’s wake that lasted a decade. The low oil prices of the 1990’s probably kept the industry from performing at par as well.

I am estimating that the under construction range should be closer to the 8,000 – 10,000 to be balanced. However, I could see construction levels falling below that range if economic conditions were to deteriorate.

I am curious, what would your estimate be for a balanced amount of supply for Calgary?

By: RJT

RJT — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 17:41:21 +0000

interesting analysis. To me, it is interesing how the glut of homes in the early 80s basically took 20 years of much higher pop growth to new home builds ratio before the glut was reduced…

By: Jim_s

Jim_s — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 15:50:58 +0000

Like we would see anything remotely similar in aptitude from the shills and ramens.

Good work.