Risk Spreads – A Red Light on the Real Estate Market February 7, 2008Posted by DustinRJay in Calgary real estate, risk spreads.
Tags: bonds, Calgary real estate, Calgary real estate market, Canadian real estate, risk spreads, risks
A mortgage product has risk and therefore should have a higher return than a bond. By an analysis of the spread above the safe investment vehichle one can determine periods of heightened risk in the credit markets.
Typically, heightened risk in the credit markets has accompanied recessions. Also, this has proved to be one of several warning indicators for the peak in the housing market cycle.
As you can see in the following graph, large jumps in the risk spread (red zone) have typically accompanied the start of a bear market in real estate. In addition, a recession has often followed a sharp increase in the risk spread. Currently, the risk spread is the highest it has been since the early 1980’s bear Calgary real estate market.
This sort of analysis is useful in identifying some of the creamier investing opportunities (green zone) when the risks have been smaller.