Volatility in Housing Markets (Part 2 of 2) July 27, 2008Posted by DustinRJay in Uncategorized.
This is a follow-up to my previous post about volatility in the housing market. For those that are looking to buy or sell a house, you may want to research what the worst and best annual scenario may look like.
The results and graph using the same data set as my previous post are below:
- P90: -5.6% (90% chance of price growth being greater than -5.6%)
- P50: +5.9% (50% chance of price growth being greater than +5.9%)
- P10: +19.9% (10% chance of price growth being greater than +19.9%)
Inflationary effects like rising household income and rent increases will continue and house prices will continue to have softness as long as there is high inventory. I believe this will entail a soft landing for the Calgary real estate market with the market chugging along between P90 and P50 for between 2-7 years.