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Ye Olde Real Estate Vintage August 19, 2008

Posted by DustinRJay in Calgary real estate.
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Bob Truman, at First Place Realty, is one of the sole providers of real estate information and statistics in Calgary besides the CREB.  I use a lot of Bob’s data in my graphs, so he deserves a big shout-out for making this information available to the public!

He recently posted the Truman Index for same sales pairs in Calgary.  This is similar to the Case-Shiller Index which uses the repeat sales technique to evaluate the housing market.

The following is a graph comparison of the change in:

  • Truman Index
  • Average Price of SFH in Calgary
  • Median Price of SFH in Calgary

Some of the primary points this graph makes are:

  • Lots of spread in market value can create opportunities and risk as properties may be bought and resold for a gain or loss of +/- $80,000
  • Value of a good REALTOR can add $40,000 of value per transaction, alternatively a poor REALTOR can cost you $40,000 of value per transaction
  • Some flippers still appear to be making good money even in a market with high inventory
  • Truman index seems to fit well with older vintage SFH average and median data but poorly with more recent sales.  This may be due to changes in real estate market mix, recent profitable flippers skewing the trend or loss aversion.
  • The majority of sales in 2006 and 2007 are still “in the black” as a total of 67% were resold at or greater than the previous sale price.
  • A good deal on a purchase and sale may be worth the same value as perfectly timing the market
  • Pulling the title and using a vintaging methodology can be another tool for assessing value

Note:

  1. Same sales pair data was from sales during the period August 1 – 14, 2008
  2. I apologize in advance for the “busy” graph.
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Comments»

1. The Bear - August 22, 2008

Resiance Construction just suspended construction of a 650 unit condo buliding downtown….the “Midtown”. 500 of the 650 units had already been sold, deposits are being held by a lawyer until a final decisioon is made on the project. That coupled with the recent layoffs at Jayman masterbuilt can only mean that we’re starting to see it happen. What everyone said would never happen is happening folks….

2. Karl - August 27, 2008

I think it’s a scam trying to get buyers to take their deposits back. I mean they know they can’t build the units for the agreed upon price, but they could make a go of the project if they sell at or close to todays prices.


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