Quantitative analysis of the Calgary real estate market.
This is fantastic! I’ll have to post this as well. Who posted it? I assume it’s from the ‘July in June’ REIN meeting. I’d throw a party if Don and company actually started sharing one or two pieces like this on a more regular basis.
How old is this presentation? Is this the same guy who said on August 14th 2008:
“So far the drop in average home values has mainly radiated from Calgary and Edmonton, where prices fell by 7.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively in July from the year before.
But it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices in these and other large Western cities slump by as much as 20 per cent in the near term, in a correction of markets that got ahead of themselves, said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.”
Interesting videos. I think he was focusing to much on subprime; A kind of tunnel vision aka “we’re different because we dont have it so were safe.” lots of other countries wern’t leveraged to that extreme eather but they are now facing problems. I also think the subprime explanation is only part of the picture in the US. Moving on he left out some things such as inventory pressures or a graph on income vs prices similar to the US one. It would be nice to see it just to see it rather then just say it is. This video is definilty old because he was saying oil would stay up but it has since gone down to 118$/b. He presented well though and economics is a difficult thing to forcast – weathermans work at best.
The presentation was from June 2008. Not sure where it was originally presented…
you might want to quote where you sourced this information from… hopefully you received permission to post this and not give credit to the source …
And you might want to leave your name when you leave comments.
here… mr tal has taken a total 180
If you look at the median household income in Calgary (about $87,000), under “traditional” lending practices (ie. 5% down, 5.5% interest, 30 yr. amortization), the median house-price should be about $230,000. The long-term charts will line up with this value quite nicely. That’s a 42% drop from today.
This article shows it as a chart pretty well: https://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/19/rich-dad-poor-dad-a-new-territory-for-calgary-house-price-to-household-income-ratios
Do I think a 42% drop is in the cards? Probably not. But a 25% drop isn’t too far fetched and inflation will rise to take care of the rest. 5% inflation for 5 years with 0% increase in home-value = a 25% decline in house prices. I just hope my salary will keep up with inflation (because it didn’t keep up with housing! …yet).
Can anyone find these videos anywhere else? They’ve been taken down from YouTube.
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